The catalysts
moving markets.
A catalyst can be a war, a tariff regime, a central-bank pivot, an OPEC+ decision, a drought, a port closure, or an export restriction. We research each one as a complete dossier — traced from the event, through the transmission path, to where markets reprice. The Iran–Gulf conflict is the first.
Watched as standing drivers — not yet materially moving markets. Each is promoted to a full dossier only when it crosses the qualification threshold.
OPEC+ Supply Policy
Spare-capacity buffer and quota discipline — the biggest swing factor sitting behind every oil-price scenario.
Tracked as a standing driver; promoted to a dossier when a decision materially shifts the supply balance.
Global Tariff Escalation
Announced-vs-delivered tariff measures and the supply-chain reroute they trigger.
Monitored via the announced-vs-delivered gap; promoted when measures take effect at scale.
Treasury-Issuance Shift
Refunding size/mix and auction quality — the plumbing behind real yields and the dollar.
Tracked through refunding announcements and auction tails.
Prominence follows the lifecycle, not the URL — an active catalyst sits up front; when it cools it recedes into the library, with its address and research preserved.