The mechanical flows that move the tape without a fundamental in sight — built only from free, reproducible sources, with every vendor-dependent estimate kept qualitative and assumption-flagged. This page is in build; the main desk’s §8 carries the free-vs-vendor doctrine until the feeds wire in.
The buyback blackout calendar derived from public earnings dates (the “5 weeks before, 48h after” overlay + NASPP window stats), shown as share of index market cap in blackout — with the contested-effect caveat and the 10b5-1 nuance stated inline.
in build · honest placeholderCFTC TFF leveraged-fund net positioning and the OFR Hedge Fund Monitor’s index-futures exposure — the free weekly stack, charted with release-lag labels so cadence is never misread.
in build · honest placeholderCboe/OCC volume, share-of-volume and put-call series — the documented growth (>40% of SPX volume by mid-2023, ~56% by Feb 2025) tracked forward.
in build · honest placeholderA positive/negative gamma-regime flag with the dealer-positioning assumption flagged every time it renders. No flip-level lines — the level is a vendor model, not a fact.
in build · honest placeholderPrimary inputs: CFTC COT/TFF · OFR Hedge Fund Monitor · Cboe/OCC · public earnings calendars · NASPP/PwC blackout norms. Vendor de-grossing point estimates (Nomura, Goldman QIS, Deutsche, UBS, JPM) are named but never republished.
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