One board.
Every signal.
The numeric layer beneath the whole platform: 33 monitored metrics — 30 of them the cross-section tradable signals — each with directional thresholds, a status computed live from the comparator, a predictive/confirming/coincident classification, and a scenario mapping. Filter by scenario to see what trips first.
| § | Signal / metric | Now | Watch | Alert | Crit | Status | Class | Cadence | Scenario | Page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1 | China REE-magnet export YoY MEDIUM | -74 % | -20 | -50 | -74 | critical | predictive | monthly | weaponization | |
| 7.2 | US avg effective tariff rate HIGH | 17.8 % | 10 | 15 | 17.8 | critical | confirming | quarterly | deglobalization | |
| · | Bloc-to-bloc FDI gap MEDIUM | -30 % | -10 | -20 | -30 | critical | — | quarterly | deglobalization | |
| 3.2 | VLCC freight rate (Gulf) MEDIUM | 423,000 $/day | 100,000 | 250,000 | 400,000 | critical | coincident | weekly | insurance | |
| 5.3 | GCC stored-water reserve MEDIUM | 2 days | 7 | 3 | 2 | critical | predictive | annual/event | water | |
| 6.2 | GCC+Israel Patriot stock drawdown MEDIUM | 86 % depleted | 30 | 60 | 85 | critical | confirming | event | defense | |
| 6.3 | Iran 60%-enriched uranium stockpile MEDIUM | 440.9 kg | 200 | 400 | 440 | critical | predictive | event | nuclear | |
| 2.2 | Flight-to-quality flows (cash + short UST) MEDIUM | 70.7 $bn/wk | 30 | 50 | 70 | critical | coincident | weekly | credit | |
| 10.3 | Spot BTC ETF flow streak MEDIUM | -733 $m/day | -300 | -500 | -700 | critical | coincident | daily | crypto | |
| · | Bab el-Mandeb oil transit HIGH | 4 mb/dbaseline | 6 | 4 | 2 | alert | — | weekly | chokepoints | |
| 5.2 | FAO Food Price Index HIGH | 130.7 index | 120 | 130 | 150 | alert | coincident | monthly | food | |
| 4.1 | LME aluminium MEDIUM | 3,546 $/t | 3,000 | 3,500 | 4,000 | alert | coincident | daily | property | |
| 4.2 | GCC construction-cost inflation MEDIUM | 12.6 % YoY | 5 | 10 | 15 | alert | confirming | quarterly | property | |
| 4.3 | Philippines remittance YoY MEDIUM | -7.7 % | -3 | -7 | -12 | alert | confirming | monthly | labor | |
| 5.1 | Urea price (global benchmark) HIGH | 850 $/t | 600 | 800 | 1,000 | alert | predictive | monthly | food-agriculture | |
| 1.1 | Gold ETF flow divergence (paper-out vs CB-in) HIGH | -12.7 $bn/mo | -5 | -10 | -15 | alert | predictive | monthly | gold-fx | |
| 2.3 | Gulf petrodollar recycling (Saudi+UAE UST/TIC) MEDIUM | -16.6 $bn/mo | -10 | -16 | -25 | alert | confirming | monthly | credit | |
| 8.1 | Factor rotation / EM-crowding unwind MEDIUM | -1 % wk | -0.5 | -1 | -1.5 | alert | predictive | weekly | equities | |
| 8.2 | Index-vs-stock dispersion (AI-insulation mask) MEDIUM | 55 % >50-DMA | 60 | 55 | 45 | alert | confirming | daily | equities | |
| 8.3 | GCC equity asymmetry (TASI–DFM spread) MEDIUM | 21 ppts | 10 | 20 | 30 | alert | confirming | daily | equities | |
| 9.2 | Stock–bond correlation sign MEDIUM | 0.3 corr | 0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | alert | predictive | weekly | cross-asset | |
| 9.3 | VXEEM — EM-equity vol (durable stress gauge) MEDIUM | 35.3 index | 25 | 35 | 45 | alert | confirming | daily | cross-asset | |
| 10.1 | Deribit 25-delta put–call skew MEDIUM | -5 % 25Δ | -3 | -5 | -7 | alert | predictive | intraday | crypto | |
| 10.2 | Perp funding + open-interest regime MEDIUM | 49 $bn OI | 55 | 50 | 45 | alert | confirming | hourly | crypto | |
| 7.1 | Strait of Hormuz oil transit HIGH | 14.6 mb/dcurrent period · base 20 | 18 | 12 | 6 | watch | predictive | daily/event | chokepoints | |
| 2.1 | EM sovereign spread (EMBI) vs pre-war HIGH | 35 bps | 25 | 50 | 100 | watch | predictive | weekly | credit | |
| 3.1 | Additional War Risk Premium (Gulf hull) MEDIUM | 1 % hull value | 0.5 | 2 | 5 | watch | predictive | weekly | insurance | |
| 1.2 | DXY surge + dollar–VIX positive regime MEDIUM | 100.53 index | 100 | 101 | 102 | watch | coincident | daily | gold-fx | |
| 1.3 | Yen-carry / BOJ-intervention stress MEDIUM | 159 USD/JPY | 155 | 160 | 165 | watch | confirming | daily/event | gold-fx | |
| 3.3 | P&I war-risk cover withdrawal MEDIUM | 2 clubs | 1 | 3 | 5 | watch | confirming | event | insurance | |
| 9.1 | OVX — crude implied vol (cleanest conflict gauge) HIGH | 58 index | 40 | 60 | 100 | watch | predictive | daily | cross-asset | |
| 7.3 | Red Sea concurrent cable faults MEDIUM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ok | predictive | daily/event | digital | |
| · | Gold spot (safe-haven gauge) MEDIUM | 4,099 $/oz | 4,500 | 5,000 | 5,500 | ok | — | daily | gold-fx |
Status is computed at build time and re-derived in-browser by the directional comparator: above trips as the value rises (premiums, tariffs, depletion %), below as it falls (chokepoint throughput, reserve days, negative YoY flows). Catalog signals (§ numbered) carry a predictive/confirming/coincident classification; the three supplementary rows extend coverage. Full field specs — input data, lead/lag, affected assets and false positives — live on each section page’s signal panel and in the signal catalog.
Tracked as upcoming triggers, never scored as facts. Each shows what would confirm it and what it would move if it does.
The board is an early-warning chain, not a flat list. Predictive signals lead the move (Hormuz transit, AWRP, OVX, EMBI, urea, Deribit skew, factor crowding) — they fire before price. Confirming signals validate a regime already in motion (interceptor drawdown, TASI–DFM spread, perp funding/OI, VXEEM, construction inflation) — size with conviction once they print. Coincident signals nowcast the event itself (VLCC rates, flight-to-quality cash, LME aluminium, FAO index, BTC ETF flows) — confirmation, not edge. The single highest-value, lowest-latency upstream trigger is the OVX–DXY–10Y complex (§9): every downstream financial signal — equities (§8), then crypto (§10) — re-prices after these move. Crypto re-prices last.