Announced everywhere.
Delivered slowly.
De-globalization is real in trade flows but largely unrealized in capital relocation. The announcement-vs-delivery gap is the signal — and US tariffs have re-priced trade exposure to a ~90-year high.
De-globalization is measurably real in trade flows but largely unrealized in capital relocation — the announcement-vs-delivery gap is the key signal. VegaReady tracks the gap between announced reshoring/friend-shoring and measured relocation, by sector and destination. Tariff escalation has structurally re-priced US trade exposure to its highest level in ~90 years, while global FDI sits in a two-year slump that fragments along bloc lines. The single sharpest gauge: the divergence between the pre- and post-substitution US tariff rate quantifies how fast importers are abandoning Chinese sourcing.
Global FDI fell 3% in H1 2025, extending a two-year slump; greenfield-project announcements fell 17% in number, with supply-chain-intensive manufacturing (textiles, electronics, autos) down 29% amid tariff uncertainty (UNCTAD). The fragmentation signal is sharpest in bloc-to-bloc flows: FDI between geopolitically distant blocs fell 30% relative to within-bloc flows after Q1 2022 (EBRD). AI/digital is the lone growth area — US greenfield reached $237bn in H1 2025 (>half AI-related: semiconductors $103bn, data centres $27bn).
| Sector | Announced | Measured delivery | Lead policy | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | >$600bn private, 130+ projects, 28 states since 2020 | $32.5bn grants + $5.85bn loans to 32 cos/48 projects; ~30% leading-edge target by 2032 | US CHIPS Act (~$280bn; $52.7bn appropriated) | SIA; CFR |
| EV / battery | ~$312bn US EV+battery mfg ($223bn allocated) | 380 IRA clean-tech facilities announced; 161 operational by Q1 2025; ~202 GWh cell capacity operating | US IRA (Aug 2022) | Atlas EV Hub; Rhodium |
| Critical minerals | EU strategic reserve (tungsten, REE, gallium); Australia Arafura $1.6bn | Early stage; China still ~70% processing | US DPA; EU Critical Raw Materials Act | InvestorNews / Section 6 |
| Solar mfg | — | US solar-mfg investment $0.9bn (2022) → ~$6.0bn (2024); 42 GW module capacity | US IRA | Rhodium |
| Shipping / cables | TEAS, Blue-Raman, terrestrial Gulf bypass routes | Force majeure on Gulf extensions [PROVISIONAL-2026] | EU Submarine Cable Expert Group | DCD |
The "connector economies" (Vietnam, Poland, Morocco, Mexico, Indonesia) are just 4% of global GDP but attracted >10% (~$550bn) of greenfield investment since 2017. Mexico: US-import share rose 13.4% (2017) → 15.8% (2024) as China's fell 21.6% → 13.2%; record >$41bn FDI in 2024, manufacturing FDI +20%/yr since 2019 (vs 7% global; auto ~40%). But new FDI sits at a 10-year low — gains are dominated by trade diversion and reinvested earnings, not greenfield capital relocation (Dallas Fed; BCG). Vietnam/India absorb US-end-demand assembly while sourcing intermediate inputs from China.
Signal: The 1.4pp divergence between the pre- and post-substitution rate is itself a de-globalization gauge — it quantifies how fast importers are abandoning Chinese sourcing. (Yale Budget Lab; Z2Data)
01 Bloc-to-Bloc FDI FragmentationDynamicGlobal FDI −3% H1 2025; greenfield supply-chain mfg −29%; FDI between geopolitically distant blocs −30% vs within-bloc after Q1 2022. Core de-globalization gauge. high
02 Mexico Nearshoring: Trade vs Capital GapDynamicUS-import share 13.4% (2017) → 15.8% (2024) as China 21.6% → 13.2%; record $41bn FDI 2024 but new FDI at 10-yr low. Gains are trade diversion, not relocation. high
03 US Tariff Escalation IndexDynamic2025 tariffs: US avg effective rate 17.8% pre-sub (highest since 1934) / 16.4% post-sub; China avg ~51% by late Jul 2025. Pre-vs-post gap measures decoupling speed. high
HIGH — UNCTAD FDI figures; Yale Budget Lab tariff rates; SIA/Rhodium reshoring-delivery data; Dallas Fed Mexico import-share series.
MODERATE — EBRD bloc-to-bloc gap (T2); connector-economy greenfield share (Bloomberg via International Banker).
Quarantined — Announced-investment headline totals (announcement-vs-delivery gap is the whole point — announcements are not anchors).
Related: The critical-minerals reshoring thread connects to /markets/energy and /markets/defense; the cable bypass routes to /structural/digital; tariff/FX stress on importers to /markets/credit and /exposure. Cross-section causal link: the tariff regime compounds the oil-cost margin hit on import-heavy equity sectors (autos, consumer, semis) — see /markets/equities and the causal map on /connections.