One giant hoards.
The cluster is fragile.
Food-system resilience is bifurcated. China holds ~51% of world wheat stocks; Egypt and Pakistan sit one shock from crisis. The Gulf is a fiscal-cushion model, not a resilience model.
Food-system resilience is bifurcated between a reserve-hoarding giant and a cluster of high-dependency importers. The 12 Phase-2 reference economies are scored 1–5 (5 = most resilient/least exposed) on caloric self-sufficiency, GFSI, fertilizer dependency, water/desal dependency and import-chokepoint exposure. The scorecard cleanly separates structural buffers (China's stockpile, US/Brazil/Russia/EU export surpluses) from structural fragility (Egypt, Pakistan). The Gulf (Saudi, UAE) is the unique case of high GFSI funding capacity but near-total physical import and water dependency — a fiscal-cushion model rather than a resilience model.
| Economy | Caloric self-sufficiency | GFSI | Fertilizer dep. | Water/desal | Chokepoint exposure | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | ~124% (net exporter); imports ~20% by value | 78 | Low (domestic + Canada potash) | Low | Low | 5 |
| China | ~95% staples; ~51% world wheat, ~67% corn, ~60% rice stocks | 74.2 | Medium | Medium | Medium (Malacca grain/soy) | 4 |
| EU | ~100% aggregate (net exporter) | ~77–80 | High (Russia/Belarus potash, gas-based N) | Low | Medium (Black Sea/Suez) | 4 |
| Brazil | >100% (major exporter) | 65.1 | High (imports ~85% fertilizer) | Low | Low | 4 |
| Russia | >100% (top wheat exporter) | 69.1 | Low (fertilizer exporter) | Low | Medium (Turkish/Danish straits) | 4 |
| India | Self-sufficient wheat/rice; stocks ~60.4 MMT (~3× buffer, May 2026) | 58.9 | High (Gulf urea) | Medium | High (Hormuz fertilizer) | 3 |
| Japan | ~40% (calorie basis, 2009 baseline) | 79.5 | High (imports most) | Low | High (Malacca/Hormuz energy+food) | 3 |
| South Korea | ~44% (calorie basis, 2007 baseline) | 70.2 | High | Low | High (Malacca/Hormuz) | 2 |
| Saudi Arabia | Low (abandoned wheat self-sufficiency 2016) | 69.9 | High | Very high (desalination) | High (Hormuz/Bab el-Mandeb) | 2 |
| UAE | Very low; imports ~85–90% of food | 75.2 | High | Very high (desal) | Very high (Hormuz) | 2 |
| Egypt | Low; ~12 MMT wheat MY23/24 (Russia ~70%); subsidized bread ~70M | 56 | High | High (Nile stress) | Very high (Bab el-Mandeb/Suez/Turkish straits grain) | 1 |
| Pakistan | Marginal; thin fiscal buffer | 52.2 | High (Gulf LNG→urea) | High | High (Hormuz) | 1 |
Scored 1 (most fragile) to 5 (most resilient). Caloric self-sufficiency and GFSI are anchored to cited data; reserve-days and water-dependency draw on Section 5 and public proxies where reserve figures are not disclosed. The scorecard separates structural buffers (China's stockpile, US/Brazil/Russia/EU surpluses) from structural fragility (Egypt, Pakistan — low self-sufficiency, thin fiscal capacity, multiple chokepoint exposure). Where strategic grain-reserve days are not publicly disclosed (most Gulf states, Egypt), VegaReady uses import-cover proxies rather than fabricate reserve figures.
01 China Strategic Grain Reserve DominanceScorecardChina holds ~51% world wheat, ~67% corn, ~60% rice stocks; feeds ~19% of humanity on ~7% arable land. Largest buffer globally; structural food-security hedge. medium
02 High-Dependency Food Importer ClusterScorecardGulf imports ~85–90% of food; Egypt ~12 MMT wheat MY23/24 (Russia ~70%); Japan/S Korea caloric self-sufficiency 40%/44%. Structural fragility cluster. medium
HIGH — India FCI stock figures; US/EU/Brazil/Russia net-exporter status; documented Gulf/Egypt import-dependency.
MODERATE — GFSI 2022 scores — Economist Impact discontinued the index after 2022, so these are stale/last-published (treat as MEDIUM, not current); China stock-share figures (USDA via CPG, T2); Japan/Korea caloric self-sufficiency (MAFF, 2007–2009 vintages); Gulf import-dependency (TRT/Emirates247).
Quarantined — Reserve-day figures where not publicly disclosed (most Gulf states, Egypt) — import-cover proxies used instead of fabricated reserve days.
Related: The conflict-specific food deep dive (fertilizer cascade, FAO index, WFP hunger projection, GCC reserves) is on /markets/food-agriculture; desalination dependency on /markets/water; country fiscal stress on /exposure and /markets/credit.